John Carter Analysis: IWM, SPY, PCLN, KO, TWTR, MBLY & GLD

2014-10-10

In today's premium update, we start with an analysis of the S&P by projecting the distance of the previous decline and noting that we are reaching a similar pullback level. The question is, do we reverse at this point or does the pullback continue? Taking a look at the Russell, we are sitting near support, but the longer-term chart shows a potential topping pattern which can lead to declines of 20% or more, so an immediate rally to new highs seems unlikely. Looking at prior corrections in this multi-year bull run, what differs this time is the strength in the US dollar. Large cap growth names that have led the market over this period are breaking down, Priceline being a major example. This kind of coinciding action is a big warning. As we've been saying over the last few weeks, the stocks to focus on are the ones that are ignoring the overall market weakness. We maintain that KO is extremely strong right now given the environment. TWTR has maintained relative strength as well. MBLY is holding the 21-day moving average but might be a bit riskier. Gold has come down to long term support but is not necessarily bullish with strength in the US dollar. In order to change our cautious stance, we'd have to see a cross back above the 21-day moving average on the major indexes.