Dicker: How to Profit as Oil Prices Continue to Plummet

2014-10-10

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Oil prices again hit multi-month lows on Wednesday on both real and imagined fears for the oil market.

One certain influence into oil prices that is real is the rapid rise of the U.S. dollar. Global oil barrels are priced in dollars, so when the value of the dollar goes up against other currencies, it forces the price of oil down. I have never been a strong advocate of using that relationship to trade oil and oil stocks but the financial connection is clear and strong, particularly right now.

Must Read: Here Are 20 Stocks That Could Buck the Odds and Do Well in October

Another, more perceived fear in the oil market is the frenzied speculation of a Saudi Arabia price war. Analysts from Citibank and Commerzbank have implied a coming price war from the recent price cuts in the official selling price of Saudi crude. It is unclear, however, whether these price cuts are the beginnings of a Saudi move to protect market share and force weaker producers out of the market, or if it is merely an adjustment to global prices that have fallen rapidly.

I have been a long believer in the long-term bullish trend for oil prices and therefore believe that this is just a temporary swoon based on financial inputs and not a fundamental change in the demand and supply factors driving oil prices. I believe that oil prices will hold above the lows that were set last year at just under $86, although the momentum is driving prices down so quickly than most technical indicators look useless.

Still, it is when the market looks weakest that the greatest opportunity can be found.

Must Read: 10 Stocks Carl Icahn Loves in 2014

I set targets on oil companies weeks ago in the hopes of a market swoon like this, where I could buy these well-financed companies more cheaply. That time has come and I have been buying small positions in two of the companies I targeted: Cimarex Energy  (XEC) and EOG Resources  (EOG) . Both have reached levels that should translate to great value opportunities when oil prices settle out, which I am expecting they will do soon.

I talk more about oil prices with Brittany Umar in the video above.

At the time of publication, the author was long XEC and EOG, although positions may change at any time.

Follow @dan_dicker

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.


TheStreet Ratings team rates EOG RESOURCES INC as a Buy with a ratings score of A. TheStreet Ratings Team has this to say about their recommendation: 

"We rate EOG RESOURCES INC (EOG) a BUY. This is based on the convergence of positive investment measures, which should help this stock outperform the majority of stocks that we rate. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its revenue growth, growth in earnings per share, good cash flow from operations, increase in stock price during the past year and increase in net income. Although the company may harbor some minor weaknesses, we feel they are unlikely to have a significant impact on results."

You can view the full analysis from the report here: EOG Ratings Report

Dan Dicker has been a floor trader at the New York Mercantile Exchange with more than 25 years of oil trading experience. He is a licensed commodities trade adviser.

Dan is currently President of MercBloc LLC, a wealth management firm and is the author of "Oil's Endless Bid," published in March of 2011 by John Wiley and Sons.

Dan Dicker has appeared as an energy analyst since 2002 with all the major financial news networks. He has lent his expertise in hundreds of live radio and television broadcasts on CNBC,Bloomberg US and UK and CNNfn.

Dan obtained a bachelor of arts degree from the State University of New York at Stony Brook in 1982.

上一篇:无
下一篇:无