This chart shows which companies have the most on the line this holiday season

2015-12-02

Every year you see news reports that say holiday sales are slow, retailers are suffering and the end of the world is nigh. And it’s not only because online retailers are taking market share. I’m old enough to remember the constant flow of holiday-retail angst way before anyone even heard of the Internet.

We thought it would be interesting to see which consumer companies have the most to gain or lose this holiday season. We began with the consumer-discretionary and consumer-staples segments of the S&P 1500 Composite Index. The index includes the S&P 500 SPX, +1.07% the S&P Mid-Cap 400 MID, +0.78%   and the S&P Small-Cap 600 SML, +0.65% indices.

Using data supplied by FactSet, we listed the stocks in the two consumer sectors for which the holiday quarter makes up the highest share of sales for a full year. We then narrowed the list to exclude certain types of companies, such as those in the newspaper, home-building and cable-TV/data industries.

So here are the 10 consumer companies that have the most riding on this holiday season:

Company Ticker 2014 holiday quarter share of full-year sales Estimated sales growth - 2015 holiday quarter Share of ‘buy’ ratings among analysts Consensus price target Implied 12-month upside from Nov. 30
Deckers Outdoor Corp. DECK,-0.06% 43.1% 8.2% 45% $74.82 53%
Edgewell Personal Care Co. EPC,-0.78% 42.9% -53.7% 33% $87.09 8%
Signet Jewelers Ltd. SIG,-0.27% 39.7% 5.0% 85% $162.78 24%
GameStop Corp. Class A GME,+0.09% 37.4% 3.6% 47% $42.16 20%
L Brands Inc. LB,+0.65% 35.5% 3.9% 34% $101.06 6%
Seneca Foods Corp. Class A SENEA,-0.91%  35.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Best Buy Co. BBY,-1.29% 35.2% -2.9% 54% $38.79 22%
Kirkland’s Inc. KIRK,-1.97% 35.2% 10.6% 100% $23.17 57%
Kate Spade & Co. KATE,+1.20% 35.0% 10.5% 72% $30.20 51%
Cabela’s Inc. CAB,+0.06% 34.9% 8.2% 22% $42.55 -9%
Source: FactSet

Yes, it’s a busy table, but the extra information might start you on your own research. The estimated growth numbers and price targets are averages, among analysts polled by FactSet.

It’s obvious that Wall Street is in love with Kirkland’s Inc. KIRK, -1.97% with all six sell-side analysts rating the shares a buy, with expected sales growth of 10.6% for the holiday quarter, and with a sales target implying 57% growth for the shares over the next 12 months.

Edgewell Personal Care Co. EPC, -0.78%  is expected by analysts to show a 53.7% decline in sales for the holiday quarter because it spun off its household-products unit in July. The company has projected “relatively flat organic sales growth” for fiscal 2016, which includes the holiday quarter.